Source: Columnist Charles Krauthammer, C.C. CALLER-TIMES, 11-1-09
Krauthammer’s "Three Envelopes" story comes not from Moscow but from British 20th C political lore. The incoming PM finds three envelopes in the top drawer of the desk of the outgoing PM. The top envelope says "Open this at the start of your first crisis." The note inside says "Blame your predecessor ." The second envelope says "Open me at the start of your second crisis." The note inside reads "Reshuffle your cabinet." The note in the third envelope says " Prepare three envelopes." It’s the kind of story that applies only to a democracy.
Joseph Stalin did not groom anyone for succession. The most talented and popular members of the Politburo and the Party Central Committee were eventually jailed, tortured and shot. Midlevel bureaucrats who showed promise and/or popularity were usually sentenced or posted to Siberia where they died of exposure or malnutrition. The amusing British anecdote turns into a very stale joke when applied to a dictatorship.
Obama is working with the advice in the first envelope because he is dealing with the worst recession since Herbert Hoover and the worst predecessor since Warren Harding. George Bush on the eve of 9/11 did not have a nation bled white by 8 years of war, a currency stretched by $60 trillion in bogus commercial instruments, and a budget having a trillion dollar annual deficit. The political party that created these circumstances started the blame game even before Obama opened that first envelope.
There are two obvious constraints to what Obama can do in Afghanistan. The first restraint is the lack of a credible central government. (Think here about the landlord government we supported in Viet Nam versus the peasant government of Ho Chi Minh.) Hamid Karzai and his parliament is not Nouri Al Maliki and his National Assembly. Without a strong central government in Iraq, the Americans had to build up local and provincial alliances and agreements. The surge did not create that framework. The Baker-Hamilton surge IMPLEMENTED groundwork that was already done by the USMC , General Petraeus and the State Department.
Obama’s second restraint is the national economy itself. The U.S. is the only major industrial power that operates without a central bank and a modern health delivery system. Our biggest bank, the "Bank of America" , fills our press with overseas capital movements, mergers, acquisitions, record bonuses, and glowing reports of major transactions. This faux central bank does not flood our media with the news of its investments and loans to our businesses, our industries and our enterprises. We have poured billions upon billions into this one large bank and yet the government still has to act as the major banker and investor for our struggling economy. We cannot borrow from Bank of America in order to support 13,000 additional personnel in Afghanistan. We have to go to the Bank of China and the Bank of Nippon. Why ? Because there is not yet a recovery from the devastation and the dysfunction caused by eight years of GOP rule.
If Krauthammer wants to handicap the Afghan war, he should keep in mind that we had to try three different generals in Iraq before the SecDef found Petraeus. McChrystal is not the last general who will command in Afghanistan. If he cannot secure at least one province with 60,000 personnel, then the SecDef will find a general who can. Granted there is a refugee influx issue and an IED network which may require 15,000 more troops ordered before Christmas. But securing all of Afghanistan is a mission that Krauthammer should cede to the ace columnist of the New York Times.
G:\winword7\mydocuments\opinion\Kraut3envelop.doc 4 XI 2009 CE
> Source: Columnist Charles Krauthammer, C.C. CALLER-TIMES, 11-1-09
> Krauthammer’s "Three Envelopes" story comes not from Moscow but from > British 20th C political > lore. The incoming PM finds three envelopes in the top drawer of the > desk of the outgoing PM. > The top envelope says "Open this at the start of your first crisis." > The note inside says "Blame > your predecessor ." The second envelope says "Open me at the start of > your second crisis." The > note inside reads "Reshuffle your cabinet." The note in the third > envelope says " Prepare three > envelopes." It’s the kind of story that applies only to a > democracy.
> Joseph Stalin did not groom anyone for succession. The most talented > and popular members of > the Politburo and the Party Central Committee were eventually jailed, > tortured and shot. > Midlevel bureaucrats who showed promise and/or popularity were usually > sentenced or posted to > Siberia where they died of exposure or malnutrition. The amusing > British anecdote turns into a > very stale joke when applied to a dictatorship.
> Obama is working with the advice in the first envelope because he is > dealing with the worst recession > since Herbert Hoover and the worst predecessor since Warren Harding. > George Bush on the eve of > 9/11 did not have a nation bled white by 8 years of war, a currency > stretched by $60 trillion in bogus > commercial instruments, and a budget having a trillion dollar annual > deficit. The political party that > created these circumstances started the blame game even before Obama > opened that first envelope.
> There are two obvious constraints to what Obama can do in > Afghanistan. The first restraint is the > lack of a credible central government. (Think here about the > landlord government we supported in > Viet Nam versus the peasant government of Ho Chi Minh.) Hamid Karzai > and his parliament is not > Nouri Al Maliki and his National Assembly. Without a strong central > government in Iraq, the > Americans had to build up local and provincial alliances and > agreements. The surge did not create > that framework. The Baker-Hamilton surge IMPLEMENTED groundwork that > was already done by the > USMC , General Petraeus and the State Department.
> Obama’s second restraint is the national economy itself. The U.S. is > the only major industrial power > that operates without a central bank and a modern health delivery > system. Our biggest bank, the > "Bank of America" , fills our press with overseas capital movements, > mergers, acquisitions, record > bonuses, and glowing reports of major transactions. This faux > central bank does not flood our > media with the news of its investments and loans to our > businesses, our industries and our > enterprises. We have poured billions upon billions into this one large > bank and yet the government > still has to act as the major banker and investor for our struggling > economy. We cannot borrow from > Bank of America in order to support 13,000 additional personnel in > Afghanistan. We have to go to > the Bank of China and the Bank of Nippon. Why ? Because there is not > yet a recovery from the > devastation and the dysfunction caused by eight years of GOP rule.
> If Krauthammer wants to handicap the Afghan war, he should keep in > mind that we had to try three > different generals in Iraq before the SecDef found Petraeus. > McChrystal is not the last general who > will command in Afghanistan. If he cannot secure at least one > province with 60,000 personnel, > then the SecDef will find a general who can. Granted there is a > refugee influx issue and an IED > network which may require 15,000 more troops ordered before > Christmas. But securing all of Afghanistan is a mission that > Krauthammer should cede to the ace columnist of the New York Times.
> G:\winword7\mydocuments\opinion\Kraut3envelop.doc 4 > XI 2009 CE
The second envelope for Obama reads "Leave Afghanistan"
> Krauthammer? isn't he the guy who doesn't know better than to dive head > first into the shallow end of the pool?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ It had to be a set up. I have never seen Krauthammer write so poorly. He must have had one too many libations before he wrote that piece. You don't start off a syndicated essay by revealing ignorance of history.
There is a lot less in the media about Afghanistan because nobody really knows the territory who hasn't actually been there. I am guessing the Afghans are a race who love freedom more than anything else, including the Quran. I cannot see them forming a unified nation based on the actions of outsiders. All the more reason to deal with local and provincial leaders rather than the opium merchants in thge Kabul "central government."
> I am guessing the Afghans are a race who love freedom more than > anything else, including the Quran.
Well, except for the women, Christians (there are actually a couple of Christian clans within one of the tribes) and anyone who just wants to be a peaceful trader and who won't pay protection to roaming bandits.
Oh yes, not forgetting Hindus, lawyers, anyone who's the 'wrong kind' of Muslim (but that varies depending on the individual concerned) bankers, people doing local civil improvements and the odd individual who disagrees with the local malik and doesn't have male relatives who'll carry a vendetta forwards.
I've come around to the French view, which is that it's mainly about women's rights, and if they can sort female education and emancipation out the place will become a great deal more civilised.
-- William Black
"Any number under six"
The answer given by Englishman Richard Peeke when asked by the Duke of Medina Sidonia how many Spanish sword and buckler men he could beat single handed with a quarterstaff.
> > I am guessing the Afghans are a race who love freedom more than > > anything else, including the Quran.
> Well, except for the women, Christians (there are actually a couple of > Christian clans within one of the tribes) and anyone who just wants to > be a peaceful trader and who won't pay protection to roaming bandits.
> Oh yes, not forgetting Hindus, lawyers, anyone who's the 'wrong kind' > of Muslim (but that varies depending on the individual concerned) > bankers, people doing local civil improvements and the odd individual > who disagrees with the local malik and doesn't have male relatives > who'll carry a vendetta forwards.
> I've come around to the French view, which is that it's mainly about > women's rights, and if they can sort female education and emancipation > out the place will become a great deal more civilised.
> -- > William Black
> "Any number under six"
> The answer given by Englishman Richard Peeke when asked by the Duke of > Medina Sidonia how many Spanish sword and buckler men he could beat > single handed with a quarterstaff.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Indeed. The French are on solid ground in this regard. There is a lot of diversity in that far country, and we Americans thrive on multicultural interactions. I see Afghanistan as a Swiss type opportunity just as the Taliban see it as fertile ground for religious absolutism.
If Helmand experiences an influx of refugees, this is a sure sign that our military mission (to provide basic security, clean water, electric power, and sanitation) has succeeded. Gender equality cannot be given the French emphasis and priority. Nor can opium commerce be prohibited by our Puritanical tendencies. I don't know anything about the French perimeter, but I think Helmand can become our showcase.
I will say here exactly what I said about Iraq. About 90% of all assault missions should be joint missions and training missions. It took us 7 years in Iraq and it will take us 10 years in Afghanistan.
>> I am guessing the Afghans are a race who love freedom more than >> anything else, including the Quran.
> Well, except for the women, Christians (there are actually a couple of > Christian clans within one of the tribes) and anyone who just wants to be > a peaceful trader and who won't pay protection to roaming bandits.
> Oh yes, not forgetting Hindus, lawyers, anyone who's the 'wrong kind' of > Muslim (but that varies depending on the individual concerned) bankers, > people doing local civil improvements and the odd individual who disagrees > with the local malik and doesn't have male relatives who'll carry a > vendetta forwards.
> I've come around to the French view, which is that it's mainly about > women's rights, and if they can sort female education and emancipation > out the place will become a great deal more civilised.
Female oppression has led to male repression all through the Middle east. . its a nasty cycle.
We just had an incident in Phoenix where an Iraqi immigrant murdered his daughter because she became westernized. he ran her over
>>> I am guessing the Afghans are a race who love freedom more than >>> anything else, including the Quran. >> Well, except for the women, Christians (there are actually a couple of >> Christian clans within one of the tribes) and anyone who just wants to be >> a peaceful trader and who won't pay protection to roaming bandits.
>> Oh yes, not forgetting Hindus, lawyers, anyone who's the 'wrong kind' of >> Muslim (but that varies depending on the individual concerned) bankers, >> people doing local civil improvements and the odd individual who disagrees >> with the local malik and doesn't have male relatives who'll carry a >> vendetta forwards.
>> I've come around to the French view, which is that it's mainly about >> women's rights, and if they can sort female education and emancipation >> out the place will become a great deal more civilised.
> Female oppression has led to male repression all through the Middle east. > . its a nasty cycle.
> We just had an incident in Phoenix where an Iraqi immigrant murdered his > daughter because she became westernized. > he ran her over
It happens, we've got a nasty 'honour killing' case being dragged through the courts at the moment.
-- William Black
"Any number under six"
The answer given by Englishman Richard Peeke when asked by the Duke of Medina Sidonia how many Spanish sword and buckler men he could beat single handed with a quarterstaff.
> >>> I am guessing the Afghans are a race who love freedom more than > >>> anything else, including the Quran. > >> Well, except for the women, Christians (there are actually a couple of > >> Christian clans within one of the tribes) and anyone who just wants to be > >> a peaceful trader and who won't pay protection to roaming bandits.
> >> Oh yes, not forgetting Hindus, lawyers, anyone who's the 'wrong kind' of > >> Muslim (but that varies depending on the individual concerned) bankers, > >> people doing local civil improvements and the odd individual who disagrees > >> with the local malik and doesn't have male relatives who'll carry a > >> vendetta forwards.
> >> I've come around to the French view, which is that it's mainly about > >> women's rights, and if they can sort female education and emancipation > >> out the place will become a great deal more civilised.
> > Female oppression has led to male repression all through the Middle east. > > . its a nasty cycle.
> > We just had an incident in Phoenix where an Iraqi immigrant murdered his > > daughter because she became westernized. > > he ran her over
> It happens, we've got a nasty 'honour killing' case being dragged > through the courts at the moment.
> -- > William Black
> "Any number under six"
> The answer given by Englishman Richard Peeke when asked by the Duke of > Medina Sidonia how many Spanish sword and buckler men he could beat > single handed with a quarterstaff.
~~~~~~~~~~~~ Ray is talking about a case in Arizona. You must be talking about a case in the U.K. Is Major Nidal Hassan a Shiite ? The U.S. is closing down 4 Shiite mosques and an associated Iranian-backed support group.
It is going to be interesting to see how Obama and McChrystal use 30,000 more troops in Afghanistan. This could put our economy in even more jeopardy. A string of bases along the west Pak border would cost a logistical fortune. My guess is that they will coordinate closely with all Pak pincer movements on their side of the border.
> On Nov 11, 4:45 pm, William Black <william.bl...@hotmail.co.uk> wrote: >> Ray O'Hara wrote: >>> "William Black" <william.bl...@hotmail.co.uk> wrote in message >>> news:hd185c$80d$1@news.eternal-september.org... >>>> Ulysses at Langdale Tarn wrote:
>>>>> I am guessing the Afghans are a race who love freedom more than >>>>> anything else, including the Quran. >>>> Well, except for the women, Christians (there are actually a >>>> couple of Christian clans within one of the tribes) and anyone who >>>> just wants to be a peaceful trader and who won't pay protection to >>>> roaming bandits.
>>>> Oh yes, not forgetting Hindus, lawyers, anyone who's the 'wrong >>>> kind' of Muslim (but that varies depending on the individual >>>> concerned) bankers, people doing local civil improvements and the >>>> odd individual who disagrees with the local malik and doesn't have >>>> male relatives who'll carry a vendetta forwards.
>>>> I've come around to the French view, which is that it's mainly >>>> about women's rights, and if they can sort female education and >>>> emancipation out the place will become a great deal more civilised.
>>> Female oppression has led to male repression all through the Middle >>> east. . its a nasty cycle.
>>> We just had an incident in Phoenix where an Iraqi immigrant >>> murdered his daughter because she became westernized. >>> he ran her over
>> It happens, we've got a nasty 'honour killing' case being dragged >> through the courts at the moment.
>> -- >> William Black
>> "Any number under six"
>> The answer given by Englishman Richard Peeke when asked by the Duke >> of Medina Sidonia how many Spanish sword and buckler men he could >> beat single handed with a quarterstaff.
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~ > Ray is talking about a case in Arizona. > You must be talking about a case in the U.K. > Is Major Nidal Hassan a Shiite ? The U.S. is closing down 4 Shiite > mosques and an associated Iranian-backed support group.
> It is going to be interesting to see how Obama > and McChrystal use 30,000 more troops in > Afghanistan. This could put our economy in > even more jeopardy. A string of bases along the > west Pak border would cost a logistical fortune. > My guess is that they will coordinate closely > with all Pak pincer movements on their side of > the border.
> Cheers, David H
Which, again, begs the question. Isn't war supposed to be good for the economy???!!!
> > Which, again, begs the question. Isn't war supposed to be good for the > > economy???!!!
> > (intesting times indeed)
> > - nilita
> Someone else's war is good for the economy, if you can get a contract. > Your own war is good for reducing unemployment.
> Andrew Swallow
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I am not clear on why the U.S. forces have low morale in Afghan provinces. Is this because of the Fort Hood killings ? Just because I have probed the stresses on Major Nidal Hassan does not mean I am trying to mitigate the atrocity or his deeds. The New York Fourth Estate should be clear on my view that the Major is a traitor who has betrayed his oath as a military officer and who has committed the worst offense against the Heartland since Al Qaeda brought down the WTC.
I have seen Corpus Christino military personnel hugging and crying outside the local Army recruiting office. I feel their pain. That's why I am curious about reports of low morale in the Afghan salient.
> On Nov 14, 2:12 am, Andrew Swallow <am.swal...@btopenworld.com> wrote:
> > La N wrote:
> > {snip}
> > > Which, again, begs the question. Isn't war supposed to be good for the > > > economy???!!!
> > > (intesting times indeed)
> > > - nilita
> > Someone else's war is good for the economy, if you can get a contract. > > Your own war is good for reducing unemployment.
> > Andrew Swallow
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > I am not clear on why the U.S. forces have low morale > in Afghan provinces. Is this because of the Fort Hood > killings ? Just because I have probed the stresses on Major Nidal > Hassan does not mean I am trying to > mitigate the atrocity or his deeds. The New York Fourth Estate should > be clear on my view that the > Major is a traitor who has betrayed his oath as a > military officer and who has committed the worst > offense against the Heartland since Al Qaeda brought > down the WTC.
> I have seen Corpus Christino military personnel hugging and crying > outside the local Army recruiting > office. I feel their pain. That's why I am curious about > reports of low morale in the Afghan salient.
> Cheers, David H > ~~~~~~~~~~~~
Virtually any anti-insurgency war in a strange country---and they don't come much stranger than Afghanistan---leads to low morale. People dying and not in combat. What is the "Afghan salient"?
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