johnny_t wrote:
> K9way wrote:
> > Doyle and Negraneau have agreed to a 1 million dollar bet
> > Negraneau has Ivey and Doyle has Darwin Moon ...MUST WIN
> > negraneau is insane
> > You heard it here first!!
> > Just when you think that youve been gypped ..the bearded lady comes and
> > does a double back flip!!! John Hiatt in "Buffalo River Home"
> > --------
> > looking for a better newsgroup-reader? - www.recgroups.com
> That's probably not that bad, It is probably reasonable that each is
> about 10% against the field, Taking into account money differences.
> I think Shulman has a better chance than either of these two. But all
> and all I have seen worse bets.
Moon has ~30% of the chips, which would be his expected chance to win
if skill levels were equal. Even if you think he's just a card-
catching donk, I don't see how you can rate his chances at less than
15-20% with his stack.
In 3 of the last 6 Main Events, the chipleader coming to the final
table won going away (Moneymaker, Raymer, and Gold). Hachem took
awhile to get the lead but dominated once he did. Yang went from 8th
to 1st very quickly and never lost the chip lead once he got it. Only
Eastgate had the lead and lost it before going on to win (he briefly
fell behind Demidov headsup).
As far as Ivey goes, I expect him to come out aggressively looking to
double up early. I think he's close to 10%, but I won't be surprised
at all if he finishes 8th or 9th.
Michael
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