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Pakistan: Trapped In The US Game
Musharraf proved excessively compliant from the beginning and this came as a
shock even to the Bush Administration, but they realised his limitations in
terms of compromises at the tactical level because of the military - which
often put a spanner in the US agenda for Pakistan. Hence the constant
critique of the Pakistan military and its intelligence outfits - especially
once the CIA fell out with the ISI two years ago over whom to target in
FATA.
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By Shireen M Mazari
Wednesday, 21 October 2009.
The Nation
<http://WWW.AHMEDQURAISHI.COM> WWW.AHMEDQURAISHI.COM
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan—There is a dangerous pattern connecting the events
happening in and around Pakistan today. Unless we can see this larger
picture, we will be overwhelmed by the fallout and our detractors like the
US will have fulfilled their agenda for this nuclear capable country.
The roots of this US agenda go back to Musharraf’s hasty embrace of the US
“war on terror”. What was not realised at the time was the psychological
trauma the US had undergone as a result of 9/11, which had led to the
bolstering of the already suspicion-tinted view the US had of the Muslim
world. Of course, some pliant Muslim leaders were reluctantly embraced as
“allies”, but always on a tight leash, but by and large nationalist Muslim
leaders and their nations were something the Americans never felt
comfortable with. If these nations were also militarily or economically
strong, the US felt even more uncomfortable. In this context, Mahathir’s
Malaysia, Revolutionary Iran and nuclear Pakistan certainly stood out as
irritants in one way or another. So when 9/11 happened, even though it was
Saudi citizens who were responsible for the actions, Pakistan was brought
centre-stage and the US saw this as the opportunity to cut the country down
to size and finally gain control of its nuclear assets.
That Musharraf proved excessively compliant from the beginning came as a
shock even to the Bush Administration, but they realised his limitations in
terms of compromises at the tactical level because of the military - which
often put a spanner in the US agenda for Pakistan. Hence the constant
critique of the Pakistan military and its intelligence outfits - especially
once the CIA fell out with the ISI two years ago over whom to target in
FATA!
So what is this US agenda that bodes ill for Pakistan? An article published
in the US Army Journal entitled “Blood Borders” captured the broad outline a
few years earlier. The main components that can now be identified are: One,
to restructure Pakistan and its state institutions according to US wishes;
two, to take control of its nuclear assets since they cannot really be
“taken out”; and, three, to move it towards accepting Indian hegemony in the
region and to distance it from its strategic partnership with China.
What has been the strategy for implementing this agenda? To create enough
chaos and violence in Pakistan so as to be able to justify coming in and
seizing control of the nuclear assets, restructuring a new state model for
the country, which would include bringing it under Indian hegemony. How
would this agenda be implemented?
First, through shifting the centre of gravity of the war in Afghanistan to
Pakistan. This has finally been accomplished through a number of interesting
tactics. The beginning was made by allowing the Al-Qaeda and Taliban to
escape from Afghanistan during the Tora Bora bombings. Then the internal
destabilisation of Pakistan began through drone attacks, which caused the
traditionally highly patriotic tribal population of FATA to gradually turn
against the state especially when the US pressured the army into moving into
this area. Also, India was given a free run in Afghanistan so money and
weapons for terrorists flowed in from Afghanistan into Balochistan and FATA
as well as NWFP. In addition, a new entity emerged with its own violent
agenda - the TTP with a huge stock of weapons that clearly had come from
across the border since some of them were of US origin. Meanwhile, the US
gradually increased its covert presence in Pakistan - beginning with Tarbela
and the so-called “trainers” as well as the private US security concerns
that have traditionally worked as mercenaries for the US government in
places like Iraq. Balochistan also saw an increase in the US presence,
especially as the US also sought to operationalise its covert operations
against Iran through this province and the bases Musharraf had so generously
handed over to the US. There was also the Bandari air base in an area 78
kilometres south of Kharan, near a place called Shimsi - not Shamsi base
which is on the border with Iran near Dalbandin - from where the drones have
been flying.
This is the only airport that is not listed as being under CAA control.
All along, the US at the diplomatic and political levels was continuing with
its “do more” mantra and undermining the credibility of the military in
terms of its intent vis-à-vis fighting extremism and terrorism. The ISI
especially was singled out for attack while the nuclear assets kept coming
in for periodic targeting by the US media. As the US became more bogged down
in Afghanistan, it sought to shift its failures on to Pakistan so that in
the end many assume that it is this reason that has forced the US to shift
the war to Pakistan. However, that may only be an offshoot of the larger
original game plan to destabilise Pakistan from within by taking the war to
the heart of the country - which is where the situation stands poised right
now. The Musharraf-US alliance would have continued, but for the people of
Pakistan’s desire for justice and freedom which spurred the judicial
movement when Musharraf overplayed his hand. But once again the nation was
short-changed because the US cleverly managed a new partner linked through
the NRO. In Zardari they found an even more cooperative leader - and with
democratic credentials to boot! If Musharraf had begun the granting of
unfettered access to the US, the Zardari regime has taken it beyond all
limits.
The second phase of the US implementation strategy has now begun to be
operat-ionalised - that is, to destabilise Pakistan from within by
increasing acts of terror carried out in Pakistani cities through
well-trained and well-equipped groups centring on TTP - which finds no
mention in the Kerry-Lugar Act. Alongside, the military has been tied down
in military operations, first in Swat and now in SWA - which has its own
fallouts in terms of terrorism and displacement of the population. It has
also become necessary to isolate Pakistan from its neighbours and hence the
extensive terrorist attacks on Iran’s security forces in Sistan province
bordering Pakistan’s Balochistan, so that Iran-Pakistan relations are
destroyed - Iran being the only friendly neighbour apart from China. The US
covert presence in Pakistan has also now been put in place like a web -
beginning from Sindh and Balochistan in the south and southwest, to Punjab
to the Capital to Peshawar. There are now US armed covert operatives along
with overt marines surrounding the Pakistanis and their nuclear assets. The
Kerry-Lugar Act merely gives formal recognition to what has already happened
in practice - submission to US diktat.
Only one last phase of the US agenda has to be operat-ionalised, but that
will be the toughest. This is to push the country into a civil war-like
situation by threatening to target Quetta and southern Punjab as well as
Muridke. First there was pressure on the army to move into Swat; now it is
SWA and the new mantra of moving the army into southern Punjab has already
begun! Overstretch the military and create civil-military fissures so as to
totally destabilise the country. When there is a state of total chaos, the
US can pressure the UNSC into allowing it to takeover Pakistan’s nuclear
assets - what will euphemistically be termed “under international control”.
But the big problem now is that too many in the corridors of power in
Pakistan are beginning to see the light while the people have also woken up
to the lethal American agenda for Pakistan. Unless we can see the whole US
game plan, and connect all the dots we will continue to fall prey to this
destructive design.
Dr. Mazari is an eminent security analyst and the editor of Pakistan's The
Nation daily newspaper. She can be reached at <mailto:call...@hotmail.com>
call...@hotmail.com
© 2007-2009. All rights reserved. <http://www.ahmedquraishi.com/>
AhmedQuraishi.com & <http://groups.google.com.pk/group/paknationalists/>
PakNationalists
Verbatim copying and distribution of this entire article is permitted in any
medium
without royalty provided this notice is preserved.
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