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Also, a bonus report at the bottom: Govt. Inaction Spurs The Military
U.S. Is Lying: No Chance Of Another 9/11 From Pakistani Tribal Areas
The entire U.S. policy is focused on ensuring a head-on collision between the Pashtun tribes of the tribal area and the federal army of Pakistan. That would cause such a chaos and anarchy in the mainland through reactionary terrorism that Pakistan would be given the status of a failed state clearing the way for a massive invasion of the country to 'secure' the nuke assets to prevent them from falling into the 'wrong' hands.
By ZAID HAMID
Tuesday, 22 July 2008.
WWW.AHMEDQURAISHI.COM
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan-'Pakistan, for example, had no enemies in the Taliban or al Qaeda until (the Pakistani leader) made them such at our behest. Likewise, there could have been no better Afghan government for Pakistan than the Taliban regime, and yet (the Pakistani leader) helped America destroy it and replace it with the Karzai regime, a government that has allowed an enormous increase in the Indian presence in Afghanistan. 'To date, Pakistan has lost more soldiers killed and wounded than the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan. More dangerously, the offensives are stoking the fires of a potential civil war between Islamabad and the Pashtun tribes that dominate much of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. This situation is heaven-sent for Pakistan's enemies, the Karzai regime, and India, to fuel Pashtun irredentism. '
Writing the above in the Washington Times on 7 April 2006, a CIA insider, Michael Scheuer, admits the reality of the situation and the blunders of the Pakistan government as well as threats which the U.S. war on terror has brought for Pakistan from Afghan and Indian sides.
"Pakistan in 2015. Pakistan, our conferees concluded, will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement, divisive politics, lawlessness, corruption and ethnic friction. Nascent democratic reforms will produce little change in the face of opposition from an entrenched political elite and radical Islamic parties. Further domestic decline would benefit Islamic political activists, who may significantly increase their role in national politics and alter the makeup and cohesion of the military-once Pakistan's most capable institution. In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil, the central government's control probably will be reduced to the Punjabi heartland and the economic hub of Karachi."
From NIC, http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2015.html (U.S. government think tank plans to truncate Pakistan by 2015. the analysis is stunningly in line with proposed new maps below for the Middle East released by U.S. armed forces journal earlier).
We have no doubt in our mind that U.S. does have almost identical plans for Pakistan in the same way that it collaborated with the Indians directly to dismember Pakistan in 1971. The way U.S. is sponsoring the Pashtun sub-nationalist group ANP, which happens to rule NWFP these days, and they way U.S. is supporting Balochistan Liberation Army and has a very suspicious relationship with Mr. Zardari and Mr. Altaf Hussain, we remain seriously concerned that another game plan to dismember Pakistan is already on the roll.
One of the fundamental requirements of such a plan is to ensure a head-on collision between the Pashtun tribes of the tribal area and the federal army of Pakistan. That would cause such a chaos and anarchy in the mainland through reactionary terrorism that Pakistan would be given the status of a failed State clearing the way for a massive invasion of the country to 'secure' the nuke assets to prevent them from falling into the 'wrong' hands!!
Last week we wrote about the U.S. game:
"U.S. media, Indian and Afghan governments and their psy-ops managers are busy creating two critical perceptions about Pakistan. The two perceptions which need to be created are:
1. Pakistan is a failing State and cannot remain viable for long.
2. Taliban are about to take over the country and the threat of nuke assets falling into their hands is real and close.
To achieve these two strategic objectives in perception management and Psy-Ops, U.S. and CIA have deployed all their assets on ground in Pakistan to launch a comprehensive low intensity conflict (LIC)".
U.S. desires and demands that Pakistan should use excessive power, ruthless force and massive concentration of troops to engage a phantom enemy which the U.S. President feels is planning another 9/11 in the U.S.
This, for our money, is a total non-sense fable only meant to create a justification for the U.S. invasion of the tribal areas and create a national security crisis in Pakistan. The reality is that the local Taliban militants in the tribal areas like Baitullah Mehsud are Indian, Afghan and CIA assets and have gone against the State of Pakistan but do not have the capacity to cause another 9/11 by any standard. They are a security risk to Pakistan but not to U.S. nor influence the outcome of the war in Afghanistan or Iraq. That is the reality.
Afghan President remains an important instrument to implement this strategy and President Bush's support to the man remains unflinching.
The harsh messages from Kabul, New Delhi and Washington were matched by abnormal troop movements on the ground creating a sense of alarm in Islamabad and the tribal regions that a U.S. intrusion is near, to test the nerves of Pakistani establishment. For the U.S., the next most dangerous region in the world is now FATA, Pakistani tribal regions and the ground for its invasion is already being created by a massive psy-ops plan.
We are not reading the signals wrong. There is a definite and clear attempt by the U.S. government and military to link Al-Qaeda with tribal areas and thus create a justification for an invasion.
Al Qaeda may be sending men to Fata: Petraeus
http://www.dawn.com/2008/07/20/top6.htm
Obama threatens direct action in Fata
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top9.htm&date=20080716
US, Nato term situation in Pakistan dysfunctional
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top7.htm&date=20080716
The Pakistani ambassador to U.S. is a neo-Con and thus it is not expected of him that he will protect Pakistan's interest in Washington. Similarly, even the foreign minister fumbled with words and stammered when asked to condemn the U.S. strike in the tribal areas which killed Pakistani troops. The statement of the PM which invited U.S. to attack the tribal areas in case of another 9/11 drew response not just from patriot Pakistanis, but also from the terrorists!
Gilani: Action Now To Prevent Another 9/11
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top3.htm&date=20080715
Taliban criticise PM's statement
KHAR, July 15: The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has said that Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani's statement regarding presence of foreign militants in tribal areas is aimed at providing an excuse to the U.S. and Nato forces to intervene in the region. TTP spokesman denied that there were any foreign militants in the tribal areas and said the government would be responsible for any invasion by American and Nato forces. http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=nat4.htm&date=20080716
Under this hopeless combination of "leaders", the Foreign Office spokesperson remains the only weak defense line for Pakistan who does the job of uttering a few desperate remarks.
Afghanistan creating artificial crisis: FO
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=nat3.htm&date=20080716
But the outcry raised in Pakistan did have a positive impact. It resulted in imposing caution on U.S. planners as far as their invasion plans into Pakistan were concerned. There was a definite plan to penetrate the Durand line but it seems that it has been put on a temporary hold. But the frustration of the U.S. military command was obvious.
Troop build-up reports 'untrue', says Gates
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top4.htm&date=20080717
The military situation on Pakistan's western borders is very tense and dynamic these days. The multiple wild cards are influencing the fluid situation - U.S., Afghans, Indians, Al-Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, local Taliban, Pashtun sub-nationalist groups, Pakistan army and the local tribes.
It is a complex cocktail alright but one thing is very sure and confirmed - none of the anti-American actors present there have the capacity or even plan to wage another 9/11 from these regions. Even the Americans know it. Rest is all playing to the gallery!
This column is extracted from a situation report released by BRASSTACKS, a security and defense analysis think tank based in Islamabad. Mr. Zaid Hamid is its Founding Consultant. He can be reached at i...@brasstacks.biz
© 2007-2008. All rights reserved. AhmedQuraishi.com.
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ZAID HAMID'S COLUMNS
Open Letter To Dr. A. Q. Khan: Why Are You Destroying What You Built?
U.S. Game Plan Against Pakistani Nukes Gets Into High Gear
Setting A Trap For Army And Pakistan
Clumsy Govt. Endangering Pak Nukes
Watch Out For Change In Islamabad
American Assets Are Positioned In Pakistan
Uncle Sam, Your Game In Pakistan Is Exposed
No Government In Islamabad
Setting A Trap For Pakistan
U.S. Ready To Invade Pakistan
Musharraf's Failures: A Revealing Assessment
Pakistani Politicians Want The Military To Get Stained
Zardari's Genius: Stopping Nawaz From Becoming A Hero
Invoke Military Courts Against Pakistan Traitors
Americans Are Panicked In Pakistan
Will PPP Share Power With Nawaz? Ruthless Pakistani Politics Are On Again
India Close To Losing Its Biggest Asset In Pakistan
PPP And MQM Secessionist Parties?
EXCLUSIVE: Foreign Secret Services Creating Unrest Inside Pakistan
Washington Sends Envoy To Gen. Kayani, Asking Who's Winning Election!
A Confident Musharraf Is Out Of Pakistan For Nine Days
Pakistan Can Live Without U.S. Money, But U.S. Will Have To Find Another Ally
Time For Musharraf To Make Changes, Bad Advisers Harmed Him More Than The Enemies
After BB, The New Face Of Pakistani Politics
Aitzaz Ahsan Replacing Benazir Bhutto In Washington?
Musharraf Should Exploit Washington's Weaknesses
BONUS REPORT
Govt. Inaction Spurs The Military
In the absence of any government of substance in Islamabad, the militants are on the offensive trying to challenge and confront the military head-on to drag it into a larger cycle of violence nationwide.
By ZAID HAMID
Tuesday, 22 July 2008.
WWW.AHMEDQURAISHI.COM
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan-This week also we will focus more on the security and terrorism axis within the country as we see a shift in gears in the coordinated low intensity war which is being waged against the State of Pakistan. The American involvement is now going to get very direct, and could possibly involve an invasion into the Pakistani tribal areas. And the volatile security situation is creating a complex and bloody security turf which needs very careful assessment.
Last week we gave the following assessment of the developing situation:
"Fed up of the weak and indecisive stance of the elected government and the lack of will of the parliament to discuss the issue, the military has now decided to take the matters into its own hand. U.S. is not going to like this strategy and would try to eliminate all those tribal elders or leaders who are making peace deals with Pakistan, as U.S. have done in the past. The U.S. frustration over actions taken by Pakistan army would surely create more misunderstandings between NATO and Pakistan and if the U.S. tries a hot pursuit into Pakistan, even a clash is not ruled out. Pakistan's new strategy of deploying good local Taliban to fight the bad ones is a brilliant one and hopefully would do the trick though the situation still demands careful and critical handling. The reaction and response from the militants is expected to be severe and unpredictable. Indians must be given credit for waging this war inside Pakistan by fully exploiting the renegade ideology within the local Taliban. The challenge for the Pakistani intelligence apparatus to break this deadly nexus remains supreme."
Sensing that the military is now going to be on the offensive, the rebel terrorist Baitullah Mehsud has gone on to an offensive of his own. The next few weeks are expected to see some fierce clashes and violence where the fate of the terrorists or the deployed strategy of the military would be decided. In the absence of any government of substance in Islamabad, the militants are on the offensive trying to challenge and confront the military head-on to drag it into a larger cycle of violence nationwide. A very critical phase of anti-terrorist operations have begun and we should expect some violence in days to come. Armed forces should be focusing on the center of gravity of the terrorists, that is Baitullah himself, but he will respond by expanding the arc of violence to take the heat away from himself. This ruthless game has just gone into high gear.
Baitullah's 'five-day ultimatum' to NWFP government
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top3.htm&date=20080718
Taliban renew threat to kill hostages
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top12.htm&date=20080720
Militants in Hangu loot, blow up FC fort
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top1.htm&date=20080715
Fierce clashes continue in Hangu
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top4.htm&date=20080718
To take the pressure off from Mehsud militants, the Swat Taliban are feverishly working on strategy of their own. The political process which the ANP government had initiated in haste to appease the terrorists is now flat on all fours and the militants have once again regrouped. They were kept under pressure by the army but the ANP government released the pressure. Now the Taliban from Fadlullah group allied to Lal Masjid and Baitullah Mehsud are back in business.
Swat Taliban suspend talks
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top2.htm&date=20080715
Taliban discuss 'war strategy'
http://www.dawn.com/2008/07/20/top14.htm
The government is so scared to name Baitullah Mehsud that they are still in a state of denial despite arresting four terrorists who have confessed to their links with this terrorist, and confessed to their involvement in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Since the government is playing on the drama of U.N. inquiry to avoid naming the main suspect, the terrorist remains free of any legal pressure despite being declared a proclaimed offender at large by the court!
Blaming Baitullah for Benazir murder premature: Qureshi
NEW YORK, July 13: Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi has questioned the guilt of a key Taliban suspect fingered by the CIA and Pakistan's previous government in Benazir Bhutto's assassination, suggesting a wider conspiracy was behind her death. On Thursday, the United Nations agreed to help in setting up an independent commission to investigate those whom Mr Qureshi called "the conspirers, the financiers, the perpetrators that led to motivating this assassination, and bring them to justice." http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top2.htm&date=20080714
PML-Q blasts govt decision to seek UN probe
ISLAMABAD, July 13: The Pakistan Muslim League-Q on Sunday severely criticised the PPP-led coalition government's decision to seek UN investigation into Ms Benazir Bhutto's assassination and said the move showed incompetence of the government which did not trust its own institutions and invited foreign intervention. Addressing a press conference after a meeting of the party, secretary-general Mushahid Hussain Sayed said the move would turn Pakistan into another Lebanon. http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top6.htm&date=20080714
The prime Minister, in his inaugural speech in the parliament had announced to repeal the FCR, the law which governs the tribal areas. But he failed to mention the alternate laws which were to replace the repealed laws. It was obvious that the ill advised move was designed to create a legal and power vacuum in the troubled violent region especially at a time when strict laws and iron clad grip is required on the affairs. Even now, the PM remains busy in trying to find ways to soften the laws applied in the tribal areas without any realization of the gravity of the security situation there on the ground.
Now if we dissect the various axes of religious and militant violence in the country, it falls under several fault lines:
1. Anti State terrorist gangs of local Taliban led by Mehsud vs. the State/army. This fault line if visible in South Waziristan, Hangu, Swat and in Mohmand and Bajaur regions.
2. Pro-State militant Taliban led by local Taliban vs. anti-State Taliban. This axis of violence is visible in South Waziristan, North Waziristan, Mohmand.
3. Deobandi militants vs.Barelvi militants. Khyber agency clashes.
4. Shia Tribes vs. anti-State Taliban. (Parachinar)
5. Balochistan Liberation Army vs. State forces. This is in Balochistan.
It can be seen that none of the axes has the will or the capability to wage any second 9/11-like attack on the U.S. despite the entire hullabaloo created about it. The Pakistani PM remains a naïve soul only parroting what Mr. Bush wants him to parrot not realizing that he is being used as a pawn by vested interests to create a case for an invasion of Pakistan while the U.S., Israeli and perhaps even Indian secret services plan another 9/11 just as they did the first one.
Despite all this violence, it can be seen that it is directed against targeted communities, political rivals and opposing sects and not against general public or even western interests in the country. This is critical to note.
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